Quarterly forward contracts from Q118 to Q219 declined across all mainland regions in the National Electricity Market (NEM) yesterday. The largest decline was in the illiquid South Australian market where Q219 prices dropped by $9.75/MWh. Queensland contracts are currently the most affordable which is driven by the surplus of firm capacity in the region and a direction from the Queensland Government last year to Stanwell Corporation to lower wholesale prices. New South Wales contract prices have declined since the beginning of 2018 driven by lower than expected spot price outcomes in the region. Snowy Hydro corporation have been instrumental in reducing volatility in the region aggressively defending the $300.00/MWh cap price. VIC contracts have softened in the last week potentially raising interest for participants to hedge volume who have been on a hold.
The following prices are end of day closing prices from the ASX.
Table 1. QLD Forward Contracts ($/MWh)
| Queensland | 27/3/2018 | 26/3/2018 | Daily Change | Daily Change (%) |
| Q118 | $70.36 | $70.67 | -$0.31 | -0.44 |
| Q218 | $67.50 | $67.50 | $0.00 | 0.00 |
| Q318 | $66.05 | $67.73 | -$1.68 | -2.54 |
| Q418 | $67.02 | $68.73 | -$1.71 | -2.55 |
| Q119 | $81.00 | $82.70 | -$1.70 | -2.10 |
Table 2. NSW Forward Contracts ($/MWh)
| New South Wales | 27/3/2018 | 26/3/2018 | Daily Change | Daily Change (%) |
| Q118 | $71.80 | $72.00 | -$0.20 | -0.28 |
| Q218 | $77.00 | $77.50 | -$0.50 | -0.65 |
| Q318 | $77.00 | $78.75 | -$1.75 | -2.27 |
| Q418 | $70.65 | $71.60 | -$0.95 | -1.34 |
| Q119 | $81.81 | $83.10 | -$1.29 | -1.58 |
Table 3. SA Forward Contracts ($/MWh)
| South Australia | 27/3/2018 | 26/3/2018 | Daily Change | Daily Change (%) |
| Q118 | $116.15 | $116.15 | $0.00 | 0.00 |
| Q218 | $98.25 | $108.00 | -$9.75 | -9.92 |
| Q318 | $89.00 | $91.00 | -$2.00 | -2.25 |
| Q418 | $84.00 | $85.75 | -$1.75 | -2.08 |
| Q119 | $120.00 | $120.00 | $0.00 | 0.00 |
Table 2. VIC Forward Contracts ($/MWh)
| Victoria | 27/3/2018 | 26/3/2018 | Daily Change | Daily Change (%) |
| Q118 | $102.75 | $103.00 | -$0.25 | -0.24 |
| Q218 | $83.50 | $86.50 | -$3.00 | -3.59 |
| Q318 | $82.75 | $84.76 | -$2.01 | -2.43 |
| Q418 | $76.00 | $78.78 | -$2.78 | -3.66 |
| Q119 | $98.43 | $100.85 | -$2.42 | -2.46 |
If you would like to know more about energy costs and the state of the energy market, please contact Edge on (07) 3905 9220 or 1800 334 336.
