Edge News

 

Our team is dedicated to being across the energy industry. We analyse any changes within the market and evaluate the impact to our clients. Here you will find a range of articles ranging from major industry events through to our detailed views on energy market movements.

 

25 Jul Electricity cost forecasting – is it really that simple?

As the Australian generation fleet transition to lower carbon emissions we are seeing the regulatory framework catching up. The regulatory framework is not the only aspect which is changing. We are experiencing an increasing amount of direct power purchase agreements being written between large users and renewable developers. Economic models are also struggling to catch up. Almost every month a new forecast is published showing that if we just implement the latest proposed change to the market, we will see a return to the good old days of lower electricity prices. Part of this fallacy comes from outdated forecasting models which still look at cost of production as the main input...

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24 Jul Have you exceeded your baseline under the Safeguard Mechanism?

Following the close of the financial year 2018 NGER reporting period, responsible entities will need to determine if they have exceeded their baseline under the Safeguard Mechanism. The safeguard applies to around 140 large businesses that have facilities with direct emissions of more than 100,000 tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalence (t CO2-e) per year. This covers around half of Australia's emissions. The entity with operational control of a facility will be responsible for meeting safeguard requirements, including that the facility must keep net emissions at or below baseline emissions levels. There are various methods for a facility to meet its safeguard requirement depending on its emissions, how it operated during the financial...

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17 Jul AEMO Release Inaugural System Plan

This morning AEMO released their inaugural Integrated System Plan (ISP). The plan is an evaluation of the likely changes that will be occurring over the next 20 years across the NEM. The ISP builds on the work of AEMO’s annual National Transmission Network Development Plan, and has been developed in response to the COAG Energy Council’s decision in 2017 to adopt the recommendations made in the Independent Review into the Future Security of the National Electricity Market, specifically pertaining to the need for a strategic national plan. AEMO have used probabilistic scenario based analysis and system optimisation to project the reliability and security needs of the power system while simultaneously...

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11 Jul ACCC’s recommendations aim to restore electricity affordability

Malcolm Turnbull was in Brisbane today promoting “lower energy prices” on the back of the public release of the ACCC’s “Restoring electricity affordability and Australia’s competitive advantage”. The 398 page report is extensive and contains 56 recommendations across the spectrum of the energy market. Edge highlights a couple of key recommendations below. Recommendation 1 The NEL should be amended to prevent any acquisition or other arrangement (other than investment in new capacity) that would result in a market participant owning, or controlling dispatch of, more than 20 per cent of generation capacity in any NEM region or across the NEM as a whole. The provision should be designed to prevent market participants circumventing...

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05 Jul Gas Market Update

Domestic gas prices on the east coast of Australia have been through a huge transitional period as a result of the introduction of the LNG export market from Curtis Island. Whilst there have been a broad range of changes, one of the key factors increasingly influencing price that domestic consumers pay is the price of oil. Domestic contracts are now being offered at oil linked pricing which effectively means that if the price of oil increases so will the price of your gas (and vice versa). For large gas producers this is nothing new as hedging commodity prices is part of their core business. For consumers however this may be...

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05 Jul STATE OF THE ELECTRICITY MARKET – AUTUMN MARKET OVERVIEW

The electricity market was active throughout autumn and the transition into winter. Spot prices were largely stable as has been the case ever since the Queensland Government directed Stanwell Corporation to adopt strategies to lower wholesale prices and Snowy Hydro Corporation seem to be willing to draw down their dam levels to keep prices in New South Wales below $300.00/MWh for each trading period. Stable spot prices doesn’t mean that the market has been uneventful. In Queensland utility scale solar is expected to grow from only having Barcaldine Solar Farm (25 MW capacity) to more than 2,000 MW installed by the end of 2019. In November 2017 Kidston Solar Farm (50...

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05 Jul National Energy Guarantee – A Cap And Trade Scheme

The Energy Security Board (ESB) released a new version of the proposed National Energy Guarantee (NEG) following feedback from a variety of interested parties. The ‘Draft Detailed Design of the National Energy Gurantee: Consultation Paper’was released 15 June 2018. Also included was a paper by the Federal Government setting out the proposal for key areas of legislation which will be set at a Federal level. To support the papers a number of technical working papers were released to explore key aspects of the NEG. The new version remains focused on reducing emissions in line with Australia’s commitment under the Paris Agreement and ensuring reliability. In addition to these key priorities, a...

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23 May Energy Security Board published issues papers on the National Energy Guarantee

The Energy Security Board has prepared 'issues papers' for the jurisdictions and the Technical Working Groups. There is a total of 14 papers covering topics across the implementation of the National Energy Guarantee. They include topics such as emissions registry, treatment of exceptions and forecasting. The papers have been made publicly available here on the COAG Energy Council website.  Once the jurisdictions and the Technical Working Groups have made more detailed technical working papers, these will be available for public consultation. This is expected to be in mid-June. If you would like to know more about the National Energy Guarantee, please contact Edge on 07 3905 9220 or 1800 334 336....

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21 May Edge attends Gas Energy Australia 2018 National Forum

Edge attended the Gas Energy Australia 2018 National Forum held at the Gold Coast on 17 and 18 May 2018. There were a number of prominent speakers at the forum including Senator Canavan, the Commonwealth Minister for Resources and Northern Australia; Tony Wood, Energy Policy Director at the Grattan Institute as well as Ian Macfarlane from the Queensland Resources Council. Senator Canavan highlighted the improvement in the gas prices during the first four months of 2018 compared to the same period in 2017. He attributed part of the 24% reduction in prices at the Wallumbilla gas hub to the conversations the Federal Government had with key gas producers last year and the...

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21 May Edge presents firming options at the Gas Energy Australia 2018 National Forum

Edge presented at the Gas Energy Australia 2018 National Forum which was held on the Gold Coast on 17 and 18 May 2018. The presentation was aimed at showing the opportunities the changes in the current electricity market held for gas producers. As the electricity market continues to adopt more renewable energy, there is an opportunity to firm this energy by supplying power when the relevant renewable source is not operating. With an increasing demand for firmed renewable products this is a perfect time for gas producers to consider power generation in support of the renewable industry. It is possible to partner up and deliver the types of products that consumers...

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