25 Jul Electricity cost forecasting – is it really that simple?
As the Australian generation fleet transition to lower carbon emissions we are seeing the regulatory framework catching up. The regulatory framework is not the only aspect which is changing. We are experiencing an increasing amount of direct power purchase agreements being written between large users and renewable developers. Economic models are also struggling to catch up. Almost every month a new forecast is published showing that if we just implement the latest proposed change to the market, we will see a return to the good old days of lower electricity prices. Part of this fallacy comes from outdated forecasting models which still look at cost of production as the main input...
