Electricity

13 Nov STATE OF THE ELECTRICITY MARKET – WINTER MARKET OVERVIEW

Electricity spot prices in Q319 (July to September) were relatively in line with Q3 2017 and 2018, however much higher than prices seen from 2014 to 2016 inclusive. Although, Q319 prices were softer than any other quarter for the year (2019) in majority of the NEM regions. The past three months have seen multiple negative price events in SA and QLD due to mild demand, constrained interconnectors and strong renewable generation volumes in solar (rooftop PV and large scale) and wind. SA’s Q319 price is on a downward trajectory from the massive jump-up it experienced in 2016, taking with it NSW and QLD which both had lower Q319’s in comparison to...

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13 Nov Are you on your way to transitioning your Baseline?

As has been heavily documented the Safeguard Mechanism (which covers approximately 50% of Australia’s covered emissions) is one of the measures in place to help Australia meet its Greenhouse Gas Emissions (GHG) reduction targets of 28% under 2005 levels by 2030. Following the updates to the Safeguard Mechanism rules in March 2019 facilities should review their current arrangements to ensure they are best placed for the upcoming changes and are best positioned to meet their future obligations. Edge has been working with clients to review what the changes could mean for them and provided positive outcomes for their environmental reporting and Safeguard baseline applications. We ensure clients are not only on...

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23 Aug 2019 Electricity Statement of Opportunities

Yesterday the Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) released its 2019 Electricity Statement of Opportunities (ESOO), which forecasts electricity supply reliability in the National Electricity Market for the next 10 years. An important change in this year’s ESOO is the inclusion of forecasting of reliability shortfalls that form part of the Retailer Reliability Obligation framework. AEMO continues to forecast a fine margin between supply and demand in several regions. Although most margins are tight, Victoria is forecast to not meet the reliability standard for unserved energy. AEMO has flagged Victoria as a significant risk of insufficient supply to meet demand that could result in load shedding. The key driver for this is the...

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30 Jul Queensland Government direction to Stanwell lifted

The CEO of Stanwell was quoted yesterday in Reneweconomy.com.au stating that "bidding direction ended on 30 June 2019” in reference to the direction given to Stanwell form the Queensland Government in May 2017 to lower wholesale prices. Spot prices have been soft since 1 July 2019 across the NEM and there is currently no evidence to suggest that Stanwell (and CS Energy) have immediately reacted to the lift of the direction. When the direction was first given by the Queensland Government in 2017 to Stanwell, energy prices materially came down and generally speaking have been less volatile. Key assets such as Swanbank E and Wivenhoe have been utilised by Stanwell and CS...

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09 Jul Enhancements to RERT

The Reliability and Emergency Reserve Trader (RERT) is an existing intervention mechanism that allows the Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) to contract for additional reserves such as generation or demand response that is not otherwise available in the market. AEMO uses RERT as a safety net at times when a supply shortfall is forecast or where practicable for power system security. RERT is classified as an emergency reserve or strategic reserve as it may only be used as a last resort to avoid unnecessary load shedding. This is typically required when the market is under pressure from extreme weather or during unexpected generation failure. RERT can be additional generation or load curtailment...

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09 Jul STATE OF THE ELECTRICITY MARKET – AUTUMN MARKET OVERVIEW

The electricity spot prices in Q219 (April to June) were unsurprisingly lower than the preceding 3 months of Q119 (January to March). Although Q219 experienced some volatility, this was far from the extremes we saw in Q119 with VIC and SA hitting the market price cap in February. Prices during Q219 were higher than Q218 in QLD, VIC and TAS, however lower in NSW and SA. Looking back across the last 10 years, prices have been higher for all regions. Figure 1: Historical prices for autumn (Source: AEMO) It should be noted that prices in both 2012 and 2013 were affected by a carbon tax, which was subsequently repealed in 2014. Since 2015 there...

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09 Jul High solar generation vs spot prices in Queensland

Solar generation and its impact on spot price is a topic of major discussion, particularly in the ‘Sunshine State’ of Queensland where there is a continuous pipeline of solar generation development. This raises the question: is strong solar generation having an impact on spot prices, and if so, is it lowering or increasing prices? Increasing Large-scale Solar Penetration in the NEM It is no secret that solar generation has increased dramatically over the last 12-18 months. From 1 January 2018 to 30 June 2018 (inclusive) the average daily production of large-scale solar generation in Queensland was only approximately 14.2 MW, only accounting for 0.085% of total Queensland generation. (Source: AEMO) For the six...

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06 Jun Retailer Reliability Obligation Final Rules Package

Yesterday the Energy Security Board (ESB) provided an overview of the final package of proposed amendments to the National Electricity Rules (NER) (final Rules) to implement the Retailer Reliability Obligation (RRO or the Obligation) and takes into account stakeholder feedback. It should be noted that South Australia is undertaking a separate process in relation to how the national framework may have to be amended or altered to take into account the framework that will apply in South Australia (including that the South Australian Minister may trigger the RRO sooner than under the national framework). The RRO originated from the National Energy Guarantee. As outlined in the ESB's Final Rules Package, the RRO...

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20 May LNP Inertia Continues

In a surprise outcome the LNP maintained leadership over the weekend noting that it remains unknown whether or not the LNP will form a majority government. Energy and climate were at the heart of this election with Labor putting forward material initiatives that would increase investment in renewable energy generation (increased funding to the CEFC) and reduce emissions through the extension of the safeguard mechanism, amongst a number of other initiatives. The LNP are less ambitious and maintain the emissions reduction target of 26-28% below 2005 levels by 2030. The LNP will extend the Climate Solutions Fund by providing additional funding to the Emissions Reduction Fund which is the reverse...

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15 Apr Queensland spot prices – March vs April to date

In Queensland, we have observed lower daytime spot prices since the beginning of April, relative to March averages. Taking a closer look at half hourly average spot prices seen so far in April, we can see that between 8am and 4pm spot prices have been softer than the same periods in March. Following this, spot prices are higher in the evening peak periods. Whilst it is a very small data set, this is the relationship that many in the market expect to evolve. Softer spot prices in the day will motivate generators to price more aggressively (price higher) in the evening peak to increase earnings which have been lost during the day. Should...

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